Online Stock Trading | Path of Least Resistance

Path of Least Resistance


Filed Under Market Commentary |

Israel, Lebanon, and Iran dominated news headlines as the Middle East conflict continued. Israel continues to pound Lebanon with mortars and air strikes. On the brighter side, oil slid down 1.73 to 75.30. This past Thursday we saw Oil go through an exhaustion gap. Shown here:

I believe this will ultimately lead oil back to its 50dma, maybe a slide to its 200dma. Path of least resistance has changed from positive to sideways.
The same story goes for the market. S&P 600 and S&P 400 led the charge on the downside today falling (.86%) and (.71%). Since the beginning of the Bull market starting in Oct 2002 S&P 600 and S&P 400 led the way. The continued weakness in these to indices will drag the entire market. Nasdaq and the Dow Jones Industrial averages were basically unchanged.
The line of least resistance continues to be on the downside for the market. Seasonally, end of July and the beginning of August are not optimal. We are coming into August, September, and October are notoriously atrocious. Cash will be king until we can get a clear signal that the path of least resistance has changed from negative to positive.
MktSpec

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Comments

2 Responses to “Path of Least Resistance”

  1. Elliot Dole on July 17th, 2006 8:29 pm

    It really does seem like oil put in a top.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1798149

    The saying “bear markets dont scare you out they wear you out” comes to mind lately. Lately it has been challenging for most traders I talk to.

    There is nothing more important that remaining in a positive mental state.

    Stay up!

    E

  2. CMAYE on July 18th, 2006 12:54 pm

    Elliot,

    Completely agree with you on the “bear market beats a trader to death” mentality…keeping positive, learning from the past and moving on into the future is the only way to go.

    Oil has put in a near term top, could be trend changing, path of least resistance top. I would look to liquidate Oil holdings here…exhaustion gaps can be very dangerous to traders.

    Oil inventories at 1030 should be interesting to watch!

    Nice attempt at a rally here…Day 1, lets start the cycle all over again!

    MktSpec

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