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Weekly Analysis


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Looking back at this past week we’ve seen the market shift its focus from the overseas markets to sub-prime mortgages and inflation. Sub-prime mortgages have some worried that a collapse in the housing market is around the corner. Others are focusing on inflation. At any rate, price and volume action has been plotting everyone’s moves.

I want to bring us back to 1929 before the great collapse. People were buying stock, waiters were handing out stock tips, truly a glorious time to be long stocks. You could buy stock with 5% down, sometimes nothing at all! Imagine, unlimited leverage to buy assets. There were no credit checks, no income verification if you wanted to own stock just walk into your local brokerage house. Does this sound remotely familar? It should, we’ve seen the same thing happen near 80 years later in a different asset class: HOUSING. Now are we going to see home values get sliced in half? Probably not, however when you have a significant portion of home buyers who simply can not afford the home they are in…foreclosures are going to SKYROCKET. This does not mean you buy homebuilding stocks at all, in fact you should stir CLEAR of them.

Coming back to today’s stock market, the paragraph above my have some impact on stocks. Surely consumer sentiment will change but will their spending change? That remains to be seen, but something to watch for and something we’ll pick up in price and volume action.

Next round of concerns are profit warnings, sales and earnings downward revisions. As Q1 2007 sets in, pay attention to how stocks react to this news. In the meantime, we’ll be looking at how this second rally attemmpt pans out. Friday’s distribution day does not spell good things. We should see our most recent lows undercut. For our follow-through days 4-7 or Tues. - Wed. we’ll need to see gains in excess of 1.7% on increased volume.

My gut feeling is we’ll be bouncing lower here. Best place is cash, with that said I endorse buying QID and SDD since I own them personally. I would not use more than 5% of your account in either of them…no more than 7% of your account. We need cash for the next bull run. No need to throw it away here.

Happy Trading
MS

marketspeculator@gmail.com

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Comments

2 Responses to “Weekly Analysis”

  1. z-stock on March 19th, 2007 5:57 pm

    MS
    I’m with you on market direction….I bought PUTS on FCX…I fully expect a failed double / triple top scenario, as FCX, hasn’t announced any new earnings guidance, up or down… and the pundits/ analysts..keep lowering FCX outlook…seems low risk / high reward…at today’s price…

    Whatever Bernanke says, WED – THURS ..It’s no good for housing, banks, gold, energy, tech, defense, on and on….

    Downside…..
    Bernanke interpreted as saying interest rate cut “sooner than later…..” makes market go UP> I think?

    So far in blog world I haven’t seen anyone addressing the Bernanke situation…So I’m clueless…as usual…

  2. Market Speculator on March 19th, 2007 8:12 pm

    I don’t trade off of Bernanke comments so its really tough to gauge how the market will react. Today’s action just shows the lack of interest in buying. Smelled like a short covering rally to me.

    As for Bernanke…probably preach that the economy is fine, blah blah blah…he probably will focus on the sub-prime lending, the need for futher restrictions. Wed and Thursday will be interesting.

    The big play may be the upcoming earnings season…how will stocks report? I’m willing to wager that they’ll be downgrading expectations and YoY numbers will not be as glamorous this go around.

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