Weekly Analysis - Market Follows-Through
Filed Under Market Commentary |
With the help of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stocks surged 2% with volume following through giving this bull some life. The market was paying close attention to how the FOMC would treat inflation. Ben Bernanke has stated the FOMC’s number one job was to fight inflation. Within the language the FOMC has stuck to has been the ability to raise rates if they feel inflation is getting out of hand. March 21st they removed that piece of language traders screamed with happiness!
The follow through happened just a day over 3 weeks since the 2/27 sell off. Hardly enough time for stocks to reset and sit in a nice 7 week base. One thing to remember is that not all follow-throughs lead to new bull markets. But, every bull market has begun with a follow-through.
We could go higher, break above Feb. highs. However, this scenerio would only suck in the weak to buy at the top. There is no doubt, whether we’ve had a top or putting one in we are going to experience a pull back to reset stocks’ bases.
The other side, we could just sit flat and build more distribution. As of now, we have had no distribution since Wed. A good sign for bulls? Could be, however the market held Wed. gains OK Thursday and Friday.
Here is my big problem! Wednesday’s volume was much lower than that of the 2/27 massive sell-off. On every positive day we’ve seen volume very light. There is absolutely no accumulation in this market. I can not find any accumulation in any index.
Troubling Stats:
% of stocks over their 200dma = 73%
% of stocks over their 50dma = 58%
You simply can not start a huge bull run with these numbers above along with a VIX that is anemic.
Enjoy the rest of your Sunday, what’s left of it. I am still advocating a large cash position. There is no need to be a hero in this market. With an extremely low VIX and a lack of accumulation its best to sit on the sidelines.
Aloha and Happy Trading
MS
marketspeculator@gmail.com
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