Online Stock Trading | Stocks on a Treadmill

Stocks on a Treadmill


Filed Under Market Commentary |

Stocks continue to run in place even after Tuesday’s rebound off the lows.  The past seven trading sessions has netted the NASDAQ a whopping .15% return.  There are two camps in this market one being the bottom pickers and the other being the world is ending.

The II survey shows that Newsletter publishers are now more bearish than bullish.  Is a bottom near?  More than likely the “near” is a relative term.  Most bear markets last 8-9 months.  We are coming off a bull market that lasted 5 years where normally a bull lasts 14-18 months.  How can an extremely long bull market only lead to a 5 month bear market?  It doesn’t, but the significance of the cross is that at least our time frame is within reach regarding a bottom.   At this point, we are either weeks, a month or two away from seeing a true bottom.

True bottoms come when there is max fear and new highs crushing new lows.  We aren’t there yet but I will be ready when it comes.

Market Speculator

VIX:  27.29
NEW HIGHS:  81
NEW LOWS:  518
source:  Barchart

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Comments

2 Responses to “Stocks on a Treadmill”

  1. z-stock, ------- http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ on March 16th, 2008 5:51 am

    Hi market spec
    It’s just pure luck I found this site
    I wish you had posted at my blog you moved to this place—
    I quit Maui site cause it turned to subsription–
    Luckily, I was just at trading Goddesss, and with a few lucky mouse clicks I ended up here–
    How’s that for good luck!!!!

    So, Market is going to go way down, right?
    That’s what I’ve figured out using Thompson SPY 500 eps estimates—
    look for SPX 1220 test—I’m not even sure if that is the support—SPX could go even lower.
    zee

  2. Market Speculator on March 16th, 2008 12:42 pm

    Hey Hey Z

    Z we are killing it at Big Wave Trading!

    As far as how much the market is going to go down…I have no idea. The 1937 market crashed almost 70%…Bill O’Neil has also likened this market to the 1937 market. He believes we’ll do about half that…

    Take a 35% decline off from the Oct highs…puts us around 1900 on the NASDAQ give or take a few points. Whether this will happen or not, I have no idea. But, it is possible.

    Good to see ya!

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