Time and Place

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Because I know that time is always time
And place is always and only place
And what is actual is actual only for one time
And only for one place
I rejoice that things are as they are

-T.S. Eliot

Be they bulls or bears, this market has left many scratching their heads. This is because more than a few are trading the market they want rather than the market they have. While it’s true that over the last three and a half months we’ve essentially gone nowhere, conditions have been changing fast and furious from one day to the next, which is precisely what has been frustrating so many. We’ve looked like we might rally, only to sell off; when it looked like we might finally breakdown, we get a rally. In the meantime, how many are trading themselves into oblivion?

No matter how you slice it, however, the long-term trend remains down. If you were to draw a trend line on the DJIA starting from the beginning of September of last year to today you will see how the index fails it each and every time, the last being this past Tuesday; after the failure in early January, this one seems pretty significant. Considering the dearth of any real leadership, it appears more than probable that we will be printing a new low here in the not-too-distant future. That is not to say it will be a smooth ride south, of course, a sharp rally is always just an Obama press conference away….

As for me, I’ll be shorting V Tuesday morning. Cut loss: Friday’s high. A re-test of that 1/23 low could very well be in the works. If there is a gap-down in the morning –well, all the better. That just means my cut-loss changes. I’ll be watching the market closely, believe me, and keeping one eye on the exit. They won’t have to ask me twice!

Others stocks I’m looking to short:
MICC (something makes me want to kick this stock in the teeth…let’s see what happens if and when it gets to resistance around 51-53)
STJ (a high volume rejection at the 200dma here and it’s a short for sure -plus, I’ve noticed Cramer pumping it hard)
LMT (looks pathetic to me -would love a weak rally to about 85-86 bucks or, even better, to the 200dma to short it to kingdom come)
CELG (2/9 didn’t give me the go-ahead so I’ll wait. If it rallies to 56-57 again and this time sells off on higher volume I will short it beyond all recognition, believe me –especially if it intersects the 200dma at the same time)
CMP (I need those two moving averages to touch again, for the 50 to bounce off the 200, then to have the stock sell off on higher volume -till then, I’ll just twiddle my thumbs)
ROP (seems what was once support -the lows of ‘08: $48.50 -is now resistance….I’m seeing increased volume without further upside (distribution) – a high volume sell-off and it looks good to go)
PNRA (this stock wants to die…How far can it fall? Well, check out the ‘02 lows. If it breaks those then look out below! We came pretty close last year….)

Don’t think I’d get caught flat-footed should the market rally here, by the way. A few CANSLIM-quality stocks to keep an eye on:

TSYS & NTCT (same group)

TNDM

STAR

SXCI

Still, the short-side remains my focus. Just remember, what is actual is actual only for one time and only for one place….so trade in the moment, be nimble, and rejoice in the market you have!

John Ward