Market Speculator

Stocks Pullback on Lighter Trade; A Very Positive Sign

Posted on April 28, 2009
Filed Under Market Commentary | 1 Comment

The swine flu dominated headlines as the new strain of influenza hit the world over this past weekend. Headlines read this flu outbreak would hinder the world’s ability to recover. News media did its best to strike fear into its viewers thinking this would start a pandemic. Subsequently the market opened much lower, but surprising to the bearish folk the market found support. Later on in the morning we even saw the major indexes in positive territory. The afternoon fade was met with support and the indexes finished off their lows but most importantly VOLUME was significantly lower across the board. Monday was a classic day of consolidation and a welcome sign to a healthier market.

One thing that is becoming more and more obvious to me is our down days in terms of percentage loss. Monday marked a day where the major indexes were NOT down 1% or more. I am noticing, we are getting smaller and smaller percentage losses when we pull back. Going back to September, generally speaking our pullbacks were on LARGE percentage losses and many times on heavier volume. A very good shift in market action and a positive sign for those who are long stocks.

Market Speculator

Stocks Set Sail for Another Week of Trading

Posted on April 27, 2009
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It is Monday morning and the Futures are looking pretty dismal. After Friday’s action it should come as no surprise all the hot money is looking to exit the party early. Friday’s action was very positive before and after the release of the “bank test” results from the Treasury department. At the end of the day the market notched a significant and strong accumulation day.

Leading stocks are holding up pretty well, but we did see ALGT get hit on Friday. NTES SNDA CYOU all are holding up very well not too mention restaurant stocks are doing nicely: BWLD CMG BJRI DIN. BWLD is the strongest of the group. If these start to crack I would want to trim my positions across the board as it will signal trouble ahead.

The crowd is looking for a pullback and are more than likely positioned for a significant pullback. If we do not see this pullback look for those not positioned for a run up to play catch up.

Good luck and enjoy!

Market Speculator

Stock Market Commentary

Posted on April 21, 2009
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I posted commentary at Big Wave Trading.NET!

On the face of today’s market it appears to have been a terrible day for those who have been long stocks. Big price declines are never a “great” thing for the market, even worse if volume is higher. However, the day’s price declines appears to have been tame. Volume across the board was lower, the NASDAQ’s volume is inflated due to ORCL’s purchase of JAVA. Remove JAVA from the picture and you’ll see big institutional investors were not dumping stocks. More importantly our leaders of this market either pulled back on lighter trade or even moved higher. Yesterday’s action should give you some pause, but on the whole it wasn’t as bad as it appeared.

Free Live Chat Tonight!

Posted on April 19, 2009
Filed Under Market Commentary | 1 Comment

Big Wave Trading is hosting another Free Live Chat tonight with Market Speculator and Author_Ego. There are plenty of CANSLIM stocks out there and we look forward to chatting with you about them.

See you tonight!

LINK

Market Speculator

Leading Stocks are Acting Like They Want to Run

Posted on April 17, 2009
Filed Under Market Commentary | 1 Comment

My attention will always be on the leadership of the market. At the moment, since March’s follow-through day we have seen leadership grow. The NUMBER 1 thing I look for is how leadership is acting, number 2 is price/volume action. Everything else is simply secondary and can not trump the first 2. At the onset of the follow-through we did not see enough leadership to say we have a new bull market. However, a few weeks later we are certainly seeing more and more leadership emerge. IBD has shown that leading stocks can break out and lead as far out as 13 weeks from a follow-through day. We have plenty to go to see more leadership head our way.

What are leaders? They are stocks typically seen in the IBD 100 and IBD 85-85, sometimes it takes a bit before we see them enter into these indexes but more often than not they are in there. Stocks like NTES, NFLX, OTEX, SXCI, LFT, TNDM, SOLR, SNDA, CYOU, CSKI are leading stocks. It is these leading stocks that will show MONSTER STOCK gains. History has proven that leaders like the ones shown above are the ones that will be the MONSTER STOCKs and not the beaten up laggards.

We have moved quite far, but remember overbought conditions can last a very LONG time. I do not think we have a brand new bull market like 2003 or 1999. On the contrary, I believe we are going to see a 50% rally from the lows in a LONG Bear market. With Obama quadrupling the size of the budget deficit in one year (remember, it took Bush 8 years to get $1tln and Obama 1 quarter) will have unitended consequences that will devistate this economy. It will take a wholesale change in Washington to clear the mess both Bush and Obama have created. I have faith in the American people will wake up and demand we erase the unconstitutional acts by both Presidents and course correct this nation.

Be patient with the leaders, but do not let them pass you by!

Market Speculator

Positions: LFT, TNDM, OTEX, SOLR

Don’t miss Author_Ego’s Post over on Big Wave Trading.net Today!

Posted on April 17, 2009
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Well, this market continues to prove its mettle. After a distribution day on Tuesday, it looked for a while like Wednesday was destined to close in the red as well. Only a last-hour rally saved the day. However, I still heard grumbling about volume being a little light. So what does the market do? It treats us to a Thursday where we finish higher on heavier volume than the day before. Not sure if that will impress those who insist on looking for any and all flaws in order to pooh-pooh this rally, but it impressed me. Plus, I’m seeing CANSLIM-quality stocks like VNUS, VPRT, RMG CYBS, LL, BKE, POWL rally off their lows and, to my mind, now is the “show me” moment. Will they continue to improve technically or just sputter out? Time to put up or shut up, right? How these stocks and stocks of this ilk fare will probably tell you where this market goes from here. Please understand that I’m not saying that I will buy any of these stocks, just that they are of high quality and I’m watching to see how the market treats them. What makes me confident that they might do well is the way the market has been treating leaders which have already emerged. Those who are subscribers to BigWaveTrading know exactly what I’m talking about.

Volume Slips but Price Action Remains Positive

Posted on April 16, 2009
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Earnings news drove the morning action as big tech stocks MSFT and INTC were a heavy drag on the NASDAQ. Volume throughout the day lagged, even during selling volume was consistently below average. During typical bull markets Wednesday’s action would have been accompanied by higher volume as shares rose at the end of the day. Although lacking volume, the market still is flashing a few signs of bullishness with its price action. It simply isn’t flashing we are in a raging new bull market.

You can read the rest of the commentary here:

There are a few leaders out there and a few that might become leaders. I am keeping my eye on the ball here.

Market Speculator

Live Chat with Market Speculator and Author_Ego Sunday

Posted on April 11, 2009
Filed Under Market Commentary | 1 Comment

Author_Ego and I will host a live chat at Big Wave Trading.NET Sunday night at 9pm. I will post a live link here and on http://www.bigwavetrading.net.

We discuss stocks and the general market. Come on in!

Market Speculator

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